Opinion
By Karl Rove
It’s official: The U.S. government is shut down. It’s a staggering display of ineptitude from a Congress that can’t pass a budget and can’t even agree to keep the government funded at roughly its current spending level while the parties work out differences.
Everyone will look bad before it’s over. Republicans are in control. They hold the White House, the Senate and the House. Voters will ask why they can’t get a deal done.
On the other hand, the House did pass a continuing resolution to fund the government. Though Republicans have 53 seats in the Senate, passing such a resolution requires 60 votes. Three Democrats came over, but the rest refused. They want to make Covid-era enhanced subsidies for ObamaCare health plans permanent, at the cost of $450 billion over the next decade. Republicans argue the subsidies were always meant to be temporary and should be allowed to expire.
The Democratic base might cheer, seeing the shutdown as a sign their leaders are finally standing up to President Trump. But swing voters may see things differently.
The Sept. 27 New York Times/Siena poll found that 65% of voters surveyed agree with the statement “Democrats should not shut down the government, even if their demands are not met.” The net result of the shutdown will probably be to weaken further the public’s perceptions of the Democratic Party, already in the tank.
The shutdown isn’t the only area where Democrats have messaging problems. Crime is another, especially when the issue gets tangled up with Mr. Trump’s efforts to round up criminal aliens.
After the Trump administration announced it is sending more Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to Chicago and that the president might call out the National Guard because of lawlessness there, Gov. J.B. Pritzker slammed the president and his allies for “sowing fear and intimidation and division among Americans” and attempts at “consolidating power in Donald Trump’s hands.”
Not to be outdone, Mayor Brandon Johnson denounced America’s “addiction” to putting criminals in jail. “We cannot,” he said, “incarcerate our way out of violence.” Messrs. Pritzker and Johnson reinforced one of their party’s most persistent and damaging weaknesses: They’re perceived as soft on crime and tolerant of criminal behavior.
Some Democratic leaders, keenly aware of the lack of public support for their party on these points, are trying a different tack.
The U.S. Conference of Mayors is nonpartisan, but mayors in bigger cities are overwhelmingly Democrats. So it was interesting when a July conference survey of 60 mayors found nearly 6 in 10 labeled juvenile crime “serious” or “very serious.” While none thought National Guardsmen would be helpful, three quarters of the mayors backed increased federal support to track drug trafficking, investigate high-level crimes, and trace guns. Fifty-eight of 60 mayors urged Washington to help purchase police technology and other equipment.
After taking office in January, San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie, a Democrat, closed open-air drug markets and instructed police to round up dealers. His approval rating was 73% in a July poll. The Democratic governors of California, Maryland and New Mexico have also recently surged state police and resources to help local police in crime hot spots.
Then there’s former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. He was in Iowa last weekend exploring a possible 2028 White House bid. No stump speech or fancy ballroom; just a fish fry in a backyard in Des Moines. He talked less and listened more. Here’s some of his message: The economy isn’t good for lots of Americans, especially young people thinking about marriage and kids. The government doesn’t respect middle-class families. He said we “need to take a 2-by-4 upside Washington’s head.” Democrats are out of touch culturally. Reading and math scores are at 30-year lows. “Children do not get a do-over,” he said. “They get one shot.”
When Mr. Emanuel bragged about having two children in the Navy and said we should be grateful we’re lucky enough to be Americans, it was clear he’s trying to be this decade’s version of a New Democrat.
Will it be enough? Not by itself. Will he be a contender? Who knows? But there was something in last weekend’s fish fry in an Iowa backyard—and in the Conference of Mayors survey—that suggests some Democrats are aware they must craft more appealing and centrist messages. If they don’t, they’ll remain condemned to minority status. Provoking a shutdown isn’t the Democrats’ path back to victory.
The column by Mr. Rove, courtesy of rove.com, was first published in The Wall Street Journal.
Karl Rove/Photo courtesy of rove.com.
Karl Rove served as Senior Advisor to President George W. Bush from 2000–2007 and Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004–2007. At the White House he oversaw the Offices of Strategic Initiatives, Political Affairs, Public Liaison, and Intergovernmental Affairs and was Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, coordinating the White House policy-making process.
Mr. Rove has been described by respected author and columnist Michael Barone in U.S. News & World Report as “…unique…no Presidential appointee has ever had such a strong influence on politics and policy, and none is likely to do so again anytime soon.” Washington Post columnist David Broder has called Mr. Rove a master political strategist whose “game has always been long term…and he plays it with an intensity and attention to detail that few can match.” Fred Barnes, executive editor of The Weekly Standard, has called Mr. Rove “the greatest political mind of his generation and probably of any generation. He knows history, understands the moods of the public, and is a visionary on matters of public policy.”
Before Mr. Rove became known as “The Architect” of President Bush’s 2000 and 2004 campaigns, he was president of Karl Rove + Company, an Austin-based public affairs firm that worked for Republican candidates, non-partisan causes, and non-profit groups. His clients included over 75 Republican U.S. Senate, Congressional, and gubernatorial candidates in 24 states, as well as the Moderate Party of Sweden.