Opinion
By Karl Rove
In every election, a moment comes when things lock in. There’s money for only one more set of messages. Only enough volunteers to get out only so many voters. No time to try something new. With less than four weeks to go, many campaigns are likely at that point.
So what are they talking about? Every candidate is attacking his opponent. But what about each party’s ads boosting its candidates and saying what they would do?
The Wesleyan Media Project tracks the ads of Senate and House candidates. Their recent report covers television, cable and digital spots from Sept. 8 through 27. Each party’s Senate and House advertising strategies are similar, so let’s look at the Senate, where the big money is.
The Wesleyan study finds that 36% of pro-Democratic Senate ads mention business (not in a positive light), 35.7% the cost of living, 33.8% healthcare, 29.1% ethics and scandals, and 25.3% energy (both prices and climate). Since a single ad may mention several topics, these numbers add up to more than 100%.
Democrats clearly remember James Carville’s 1992 mantra, “It’s the economy, stupid and don’t forget healthcare.” They hope President Trump’s poor ratings on inflation give them the win on economic issues generally, despite a strong stock market, stable job numbers and healthy growth.
By contrast, 46.1% of pro-Republican Senate ads mention taxes, 19.9% the cost of living, 18.1% transgenderism, 15.1% immigration and 14.4% crime. The GOP clearly devotes less attention to the economy and more to cultural issues. But immigration and crime may be yesterday’s news, especially since the border is closed and crime is down. Voters tend to pocket success and focus on what’s bothering them. Concentrating on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act also risks seeming complacent. Republicans look as if they’re running on what they’ve done more than on what they’ll do next.
What’s the money situation? Here the GOP edge is undeniable. Republicans have lots more. California data scientist Rob Pyers estimates Republicans have spent $642.9 million on ads for Senate candidates and $165.6 million for House candidates. Democrats have spent $235.2 million on Senate hopefuls and $125.8 million on the House. Does spending the most money guarantee victory? Ask President Mike Bloomberg.
Moreover, the president’s political-action committee might have waited too long to release its enormous load of cash. Many undecided and swing voters could have decided before Labor Day, making movement difficult in September and October. Some always wait until closer to the election. But will there be enough for Republicans to cut their losses? Only time will tell.
What about the polls? Republicans believe they are biased in favor of Democrats. One of the best GOP polling minds, Patrick Ruffini, examined this question, studying 3,312 polls from the last four elections. He found 73% of these overstated Democratic performance compared with the actual results.
That Democratic overperformance peaked in July at 5.9 points. The numbers generally started declining in late August. By Election Day, polls were on average 2.6 points more Democratic than the results.
Mr. Ruffini also examined the most competitive races during this period, those with 30 or more polls. At this point in the cycle, these polls were 7 points more Democratic than the outcome. The redder the state, the more polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s numbers.
If this pattern holds this year, then virtually every battleground Senate race is within the margin of error today, exaggerating the current strength of Democratic candidates. Some who look today like possible winners will lose if the pattern holds. Still, how this plays out is up in the air. “Each cycle has the potential to behave differently,” Mr. Ruffini acknowledges. Maybe this is that cycle. Or maybe not.
What Republicans don’t need are distractions. That’s why the president’s undisciplined appearances are a problem. Take Monday’s Nebraska rally. Mr. Trump said that Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego. Taken out of context, as it predictably was by the president’s antagonists in the media, it sounded like an invitation or a joke. Then there is the controversy about the political ads the White House was running with taxpayer dollars. Mr. Trump said he’d pay for them, then that he’ll pay for them only going forward. There are likely to be more distractions almost every day. That’s unhelpful. But we know Mr. Trump won’t change.
Republicans can only hope the polls are off, debates go well, their money and message keep down their losses, and any October surprise sprung by America’s adversaries fails. It’s nail-biting time for everyone, especially Republicans.
The column by Mr. Rove, courtesy of KarlRove.com, was first published in The Wall Street Journal.
Karl Rove served as Senior Advisor to President George W. Bush from 2000–2007 and Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004–2007. At the White House he oversaw the Offices of Strategic Initiatives, Political Affairs, Public Liaison, and Intergovernmental Affairs and was Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, coordinating the White House policy-making process. Notably, Mr. Rove was known as “The Architect” of President Bush’s 2000 and 2004 winning campaigns.