I have a compelling story line from the 2020 election.
Ok. Ok. The story line is nothing new, because it is a repeat from the 2016 presidential election cycle: Most pollsters got the presidential election wrong.
Remember that the majority of the polls were predicting a near landslide win for former VP Biden on Election Day? President Trump was expected to lose the national vote total by eight points, but VP Biden won by just about 3.
State polls were also often wrong. In the final poll in Wisconsin by the Washington Post, for example, President Trump was expected to lose by 17 points, but VP Biden won the state by less than one point. In other states, polls undercounted the president’s supporters.
In 2020, it’s obvious he pollsters didn’t learn much from their mistakes in 2016.
