Not a single Democrat holds statewide elective office in Florida.
Opinion
By Greg C. Truax
Florida Democrats say “Pendulum,” their new organizing initiative, offers high hopes for a political comeback. But their struggles echo those of the national Democratic Party, which one analyst recently described as facing “an air of denial — and, more recently, panic” in the ongoing discussion about its direction. In Florida, Democrats must overcome dismal fundraising, double-digit losses in statewide races and a growing Republican lead in voter registration.
The state party’s case for revival was clearly laid out in a recent column by Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, published in the Palm Beach Post. “The Florida Democratic Party is launching Pendulum — Florida’s first year-round Democratic organizing program,” she wrote. “We’ve committed millions to grow the program, hire local staff, and train volunteers” to build a “lasting campaign infrastructure from the ground up.”
A big promise — but it comes with a fair ask: “Show me the money.”
According to the Florida Division of Elections, the Florida Democratic Party ended the period on June 30 with more than $4.79 million in outstanding obligations. By contrast, the Republican Party of Florida reported $23.8 million in cash on hand. As of July 30, the Florida Democratic Party’s federal account reported $587,000 in cash on hand, while the Republican Party of Florida’s federal account reported $2.23 million.
The financial gap between the two parties is even starker within the legislative campaign arms that support Florida’s House and Senate races. Recent filings with the Florida Division of Elections reveal just how lopsided the playing field has become.
House Victory, the campaign arm for House Republicans, reports $2.74 million in cash on hand, with an additional $4.05 million controlled by a political committee aligned with House GOP leadership. Senate Victory, the Republican Senate campaign arm, reports $16.1 million in cash on hand — plus another $13.5 million held in a separate Senate GOP leadership committee. That’s nearly $30 million in available funds supporting Republican Senate efforts alone.
By comparison, House Victory Democrats report just $195,000 in cash on hand, while Senate Victory Democrats report only $59,000.
The reality is that Pendulum launches into a stiff political headwind: a well-funded GOP with a conservative message that fits Florida’s right-leaning electorate.
Republicans continue to hold supermajorities in the Florida House and Senate. Also, 20 of the state’s 28 U.S. House seats are held by Republicans.
In the 2024 elections, former President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott notched double-digit victories, extending a Republican winning streak that includes 2022 landslide wins by Gov. Ron DeSantis, then-U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, and all three GOP cabinet members.
Ponder this: Today, not a single Democrat holds statewide elective office in Florida, one of the most populous and diverse states in the nation.
Florida’s voter registration numbers also show a widening Republican advantage. Since the 2022 elections, the GOP’s lead in active registered voters has grown from about 384,000 to 1.36 million. Republicans now hold a registration edge in 59 of the state’s 67 counties, including Miami-Dade and Hillsborough — both of which recently flipped from blue to red.
Nationally, “grim milestones of Democratic decline have been piling up,” according to an analysis by The New York Times. “All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with Washington, D.C., that allow people to register with a political party. (In the remaining 20 states, voters do not register with a political party.) Republicans gained 2.4 million.”
Still, some Democratic leaders question the view that “it seems the party is in disarray.” On his Facebook page, DNC Executive Committee member Alan Clendenin of Tampa dismissed that obvious conclusion as a “message echoed in the media from a small group of malcontents,” adding: “The party is fighting back across the country.”
The New York Times analysis highlighted key takeaways: Democrats are losing ground with new voters, battleground states are swinging to the right, the gender gap is a growing problem for Democrats, and younger voters are increasingly opting for the GOP.
“The pendulum is swinging,” Fried wrote. “And this time, Florida Democrats are the force behind it.” Whether that pendulum swing gains real momentum depends on the party’s ability to lay the foundation for a more competitive future in Florida politics.
Greg C. Truax is president of GCTMediaGroup in Tampa. He grew up in St. Petersburg, attended Pinellas County schools and was a founding member of the Poynter Institute Foundation Board.
The column was first published online by the Tampa Bay Times.