Florida Governor-elect Byron Donalds lives in Naples with his wife, Erika, and their three sons, Damon, Darin and Mason/Photo courtesy of the Byron Donalds campaign.
Opinion
By Ryan Smith
Thanks to you and your support, Governor-elect Byron Donalds’ victory on Tuesday night made Florida and national history. Florida shone brightly as Byron Donalds and all statewide Republicans defeated the Democrats. Against the backdrop of the most difficult political climate in generations, Florida’s firewall held.
When this race began in February 2025, Byron Donalds was a Congressman from Southwest Florida with modest statewide name ID who was entering what was presumed to be the most competitive Republican primary in the country. But he had the three most powerful forces in politics at his back:
- The endorsement of President Trump.
- Generous donors who graciously gave the necessary resources to execute a campaign.
- A tireless work ethic shown every day. This same work ethic was demanded of the campaign team.
He quickly dominated the Republican primary and never looked back.
On Tuesday, Donalds won with 50% of the vote – 4.1 million total votes – and 107,682 more votes than David Jolly received. His victory was no accident. For the first time in nearly 30 years, Byron Donalds went wire to wire over the course of a 21-month campaign because he put in the hard work and created an organization that was built to win.
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
Let me give you a few quick facts about the victory you helped us build:
- Donalds raised over $174 million from 49,694 unique donors – the most of any non-incumbent candidate for Governor in Florida history. He outraised Jolly by a 6:1 margin.
- Donalds won 54 of 67 counties, an increase of 4 counties over his primary victory.
- Donalds received a total of 4,132,363 votes.
- 703,206 more Republicans than Democrats voted.
Next, let’s look at the political headwinds facing Donalds and compare Florida’s results to results across America:
- In our final survey completed October 25, the right track/wrong track of the country was -25 – truly tough sledding for any candidate, regardless of any voter registration advantages.
- In 2024, President Trump won Florida by 13 points; in 2026, Byron Donalds won by 1.3%. Our final survey predicted a 1% margin of victory – it was spot on. A 14-point swing.
- In states with similar registration and performance advantages, the story was MUCH different on Tuesday night:
- Iowa: Trump won by 12 in 2024; in 2026, the GOP gubernatorial candidate lost by 12 – a 23-point swing.
- Texas: Trump won by 13 in 2024; in 2026, Governor Abbott lost by 7 – a 20-point swing.
Donalds held the line, while Republicans nationally lost 5 governorships to the Democrats. With the fall of Texas, Florida is the premier Republican stronghold in America.
Donalds also won with against the biggest disparity between Republicans and Democrats since the 1980s:
- In 2026, 68.1% of Democrats voted, compared to only 62.0% of Republicans. Additionally, 49.5% of Independents voted.
- This produced a final Republican turnout margin of +8.5%.
Democrats and their media allies got a competitive election because of the national political environment, yet they still fell short. This is because we had the superior candidate and message, the necessary financial resources, and the best turnout program.
MESSAGING
In total, the Donalds effort spent over $80 million on television and streaming in the general election, hammering David Jolly’s unaffordable and far-left liberal agenda that sought to undo the successes of Governor DeSantis. Conversely, Donalds’ message focused on making life more affordable and continuing the DeSantis’ policies to successfully move Florida forward.
As the Tampa Bay Times reported:
“Meanwhile, Donalds monopolized air time with ads that defined Jolly. The Donalds campaign relentlessly hammered him, characterizing a key proposal from Jolly to overhaul the state’s hurricane insurance coverage as a $1,000 ‘hurricane tax.’ Jolly cried foul, saying his plan would cut premiums by up to 70%, but the damage was done. According to a University of North Florida poll last month more respondents expressed trust in Donalds on property insurance, at 43%, compared to 38% for Jolly.”
Donalds’ victory dispelled a number of false narratives – including significant crossover Republican votes for Jolly and the notion that rural and Northwest Florida counties would not support him – in fact, Donalds annihilated Jolly in these counties. Rural and Northwest Florida were decisive in his victory.
TURNOUT AND MINORITY OUTREACH
In our October memo, we outlined the reasons Byron Donalds would emerge victorious. Chief among them was our full-spectrum turnout program – and the fact we had one, but the Democrats did not. We built a $20 million program that hit 2.25 million doors, made millions more live phone calls and texts, and targeted our voters online and in the mailbox to drive them to the polls. We executed outreach programs in the Black community and in Miami-Dade County to reach Black and Hispanic voters, as well.
David Jolly himself admitted to the Times: “The money they spent in the field in South Florida was the most effective,” Jolly said. “He paid his door knockers $28 an hour. We don’t have anything like that.”
This turnout effort was decisive in delivering victory for Donalds and the entire statewide Republican ticket.
CONCLUSION
With their victory, Governor-elect Byron Donalds and Lieutenant Governor-elect Bryan Avila have made history and embody the new Republican coalition that will lead Florida and America into the future with bold conservative leadership.
Ryan Smith is Chairman, Friends of Byron Donalds PAC.