Opinion
By Karl Rove
Hand it to President Trump. He got the Indiana scalps he wanted. He and his allies targeted seven incumbent Republican state senators up for re-election this year. At least five lost their primaries on Tuesday. A sixth leads by three votes.
Why did the White House go after these GOP legislators? Because they rejected Mr. Trump’s demand last year that they redraw Indiana’s U.S. House districts. He wanted to flip one or perhaps both of the state’s two Democrat-held seats.
Incensed at these Republicans’ reluctance to draw new maps mid-decade, Mr. Trump backed their primary opponents. Challengers visited the White House in March for a pep talk and photos. Then the president’s team orchestrated a flood of television ads savaging the incumbents as RINOs, no matter how conservative their voting records were. That helped drive total Indiana state Senate primary ad spending up to $13.5 million.
Residents in these districts couldn’t escape the barrage when they turned on their TVs. Money again showed its power as Team Trump buried their targets in negative spots.
The Club for Growth reinforced the TV offensive with $2 million, largely for attack mailers. The group’s leader, David MacIntosh, has often been critical of Mr. Trump, whom he called “the weakest presidential candidate” in the 2024 GOP field. This was after Mr. Trump called the Club “political misfits, globalists, and losers.” But Mr. MacIntosh, a former Hoosier congressman, seized the opportunity to repair his standing with the president. Mr. Trump’s enemies in the Indiana Senate became Mr. MacIntosh’s as well.
So what was gained by all this? Republicans spent money on intraparty payback that could have helped defend at-risk Republicans and defeat vulnerable Democrats. And to no immediate effect on redistricting. Indiana won’t redraw its maps this year. The winning primary candidates still face a November general election before they can go to Indianapolis next year and craft new congressional districts for 2028.
The stunt did reinforce Mr. Trump’s reputation for being willing to get even if he doesn’t get his way. Indiana’s Gov. Mike Braun and U.S. Sen. Jim Banks aided the effort to knock off the legislators. Maybe that makes all three of them stronger, maybe it doesn’t. Either way it will leave scars among Indiana Republicans.
Presidential endorsements invariably carry weight, but the power isn’t unlimited. When used too freely against one’s own party members or in open contests, they can weaken rather than strengthen a president.
Georgia is a textbook example. In September 2021, Mr. Trump gave Herschel Walker his “Complete and Total Endorsement” for the U.S. Senate seat held by freshman Democrat Raphael Warnock. This cleared the Republican field of serious challengers, but Mr. Walker turned out to be a terrible candidate and squandered a pick-up opportunity.
After Gov. Brian Kemp refused Mr. Trump’s demands to throw out his state’s 2020 election returns, the president turned on him. Mr. Trump recruited former Sen. David Perdue to challenge Mr. Kemp in the 2022 GOP gubernatorial primary and campaigned for his protégé. But appreciative of Mr. Kemp’s leadership—and perhaps souring on the president’s choices as Mr. Warnock floundered—Georgia Republicans gave the governor a 74% to 22% victory over the president’s man.
In this year’s Georgia Republican primary to replace the term-limited Mr. Kemp, the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows the president’s choice, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, getting less than a quarter of the vote and in second place in the May 19 primary. He will likely get into the runoff and could still become the party’s nominee. But it says something that three-quarters of Peach State Republicans are undecided or support someone other than the president’s choice today.
Another downside of going overboard on endorsements: Officeholders affected by adverse presidential judgments have the opportunity to get payback as free agents. Witness Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.). When he thought about a 2026 re-election bid, the White House made clear he wasn’t a presidential favorite. After he announced he wasn’t running again, he single-handedly pressured the administration into dropping its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. There’s likely more to come from Mr. Tillis.
This president likes calling all the shots. But attempting to dominate so many of his party’s choices carries risks. Mr. Trump hasn’t learned he can get more with honey than vinegar, doesn’t need to make every pick in every contest and can achieve more by focusing on important stuff and letting GOP voters make up their own minds sometimes. If he keeps up what he did in Indiana, Mr. Trump could further damage his party and presidency.
The column by Mr. Rove, courtesy of KarlRove.com, was first published in The Wall Street Journal.
Karl Rove served as Senior Advisor to President George W. Bush from 2000–2007 and Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004–2007. At the White House he oversaw the Offices of Strategic Initiatives, Political Affairs, Public Liaison, and Intergovernmental Affairs and was Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy, coordinating the White House policy-making process. Notably, Mr. Rove was known as “The Architect” of President Bush’s 2000 and 2004 winning campaigns.